About ByteTrend
The ByteTrend Score
Every score is the count of five independent yes/no trend tests. No weightings, no tuning, no discretion — each test that passes adds one point.
The five rules
| # | Rule | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Price is above its long moving average | The big-picture trend is up |
| 2 | Price is above its short moving average | The recent trend agrees |
| 3 | The long moving average is rising | The slow trend itself is improving, not just price spiking over it |
| 4 | The short moving average is rising | Momentum is building here and now |
| 5 | The most recent extreme touched was the high, not the low | Within the lookback window, price has pressed against the top of its range more recently than the bottom |
Reading the score
| 0 | Full downtrend — no trend condition is met |
| 1 | Deeply weak — a single condition holding |
| 2 | Weak — the trend is broken or barely forming |
| 3 | Mixed — transitional, watch the direction of travel |
| 4 | Strong — most conditions met, trend well established |
| 5 | Full uptrend — every condition met |
Transitions carry more information than levels. A move from 2 to 4 says a trend is forming; a slip from 5 to 3 says an established trend is being questioned. The score sparklines and consecutive-week counts on the asset tables exist to make those transitions visible.
Two timescales
The five rules run on two sets of windows, producing two scores that answer different questions:
| Daily | Weekly | |
|---|---|---|
| Long moving average | 200 days | 200 weeks |
| Short moving average | 30 days | 30 weeks |
| High/low lookback (rule 5) | 20 days | 20 weeks |
| Best suited to | Month-scale momentum and early turns | Multi-year trends and regime calls |
Both scores update every day — the names refer to the timescale of the moving averages, not how often the score refreshes. Digital assets trade seven days a week, so their windows are scaled to match (for example, the Daily long average uses 280 calendar days) and the timescales stay comparable across asset classes.
Local vs CAPR — absolute vs relative
The same five rules are also applied to two different price series:
- Local — the asset's own price. Is it trending up in absolute terms?
- CAPR (Currency-Adjusted Price Relative) — the asset's USD price divided by the MSCI World index. Is it beating the global equity market? Because both sides of the ratio are in US dollars, currency effects wash out.
Two timescales × two series = four ByteTrend scores per asset: Daily Local, Daily CAPR, Weekly Local, Weekly CAPR. Comparing them is where the insight lives: an asset with Weekly Local 5 but Weekly CAPR 2 is rising in price yet losing ground to the market — a trend, but not leadership. The site shows Daily CAPR by default; the selector on each asset's detail page switches between all four.
Trend regimes
On top of the score, each asset is classified into one of five regimes. The named regimes fire only when the asset sits at a 30-week price extreme and at a specific score level — so most assets, most days, are simply Neutral:
| Regime | Condition |
|---|---|
| Leading Trend | Score 5 at a 30-week high |
| Emerging Trend | Score 1–4 at a 30-week high |
| Weakening Trend | Score 1–5 at a 30-week low |
| Bear Trend | Score 0 at a 30-week low |
| Neutral | None of the above |
A Leading Trend asset can drop back to Neutral simply by drifting off its 30-week high, with no score change at all — the regime is a sharper, rarer signal than the score itself.