About ByteTrend
The ByteTrend Score
Every score is the sum of five independent yes/no trend criteria. No weightings, no tuning, no discretion: each criterion met adds one point.
The five rules
| # | Rule | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The long moving average is rising | The big-picture trend is up |
| 2 | The short moving average is rising | The recent trend agrees |
| 3 | Price is above its long moving average | Adds conviction to the big-picture trend |
| 4 | Price is above its short moving average | Momentum is building here and now |
| 5 | The most recent extreme touched was the high, not the low | The security has made new highs more recently than new lows |
Reading the score
| 5 | Full uptrend — every condition met |
| 4 | Strong — most conditions met, trend well established |
| 3 | Mixed — the trend is forming, or starting to break |
| 2 | Weak — the trend is broken, or starting to form |
| 1 | Very weak — a single condition holding |
| 0 | Full downtrend — no trend condition is met |
Transitions carry information as well as levels. A move from 2 to 4 says a trend is forming; a slip from 5 to 3 says an established trend is being questioned. The Chg columns — the daily change in each score — and the consecutive-week counts exist to make those transitions visible.
Two timescales
The five rules run on two sets of windows, producing two scores that answer different questions:
| Daily | Weekly | |
|---|---|---|
| Long moving average | 200 days | 200 weeks |
| Short moving average | 30 days | 30 weeks |
| High/low lookback (rule 5) | 20 days | 20 weeks |
| Best suited to | Month-scale momentum and early turns | Multi-year trends and regime calls |
Both scores update every day. The terms "daily" and "weekly" refer to the timescale of the moving averages, not how often the score refreshes. Digital assets trade seven days a week, so their windows are scaled to match (for example, the Daily long average uses 280 calendar days), and the timescales stay comparable across asset classes.
Local vs CAPR — absolute vs relative
The same five rules are also applied to two different price series:
- Local — the asset's price in its own currency. Is it trending up in absolute terms?
- CAPR (Currency-Adjusted Price Relative) — the asset's price, converted into USD, divided by the MSCI World index. Is it beating the global equity market, on a constant currency basis?
Two timescales × two series = four ByteTrend scores per asset:
Comparing them is where the insight lives: an asset with Weekly Local 5 but Weekly CAPR 2 is rising in price yet losing ground to the market — a trend, but not leadership. A Weekly CAPR 0 with a Daily CAPR 5 suggests momentum is building in the short term, but the long-term trend is yet to confirm the move. The site shows Daily CAPR by default, and you can toggle between the four trend perspectives on each security's page.
Trend regimes
On top of the score, each asset is classified into one of five regimes. The named regimes fire only when the asset sits at a 30-week CAPR high/low, and at a specific score level — so most assets, most days, are simply Neutral:
| Regime | Condition |
|---|---|
| Leading Trend | Score 5 at a 30-week high |
| Emerging Trend | Score 1–4 at a 30-week high |
| Weakening Trend | Score 1–5 at a 30-week low |
| Bear Trend | Score 0 at a 30-week low |
| Neutral | None of the above |
A Leading Trend asset can drop back to Neutral simply by falling away from its 30-week high, with no score change at all. The regime is a sharper, rarer signal than the score itself.
Regimes are computed on both timescales. The table above describes the Weekly regime, which is what the asset tables and the group pages show. Each security's own page shows the Daily regime — same five classifications, same logic, but keyed off a 30-day extreme and the Daily score. The two can legitimately disagree for the same asset on the same day: a Daily regime turns first.